Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
Jameer Nelson- DK:$4500 FD:$4700
Jamal Murray- DK:$3700 FD:$3800
Emmanuel Mudiay has been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with a back injury that has bothered him for a little bit. If he doesn’t play that means that Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray will see an increase in minutes once again. Jameer Nelson’s minutes should once again touch the low 30’s which gives him a good opportunity to get value for us. The Mavs, however, are no slouch on defense vs PG’s as on Fanduel they allow an average of 38.4 points per game which is best in the league. On DraftKings they are also best in the league and allow just 49 points per game. But those numbers may be thrown out the window for tonight’s game as Deron Williams is doubtful and known Nuggets killer JJ Barea is out. That leaves a very young and talented Yogi Ferrell left and tasked with guarding Jameer. With James price so low and his minutes so high, he should be able to approach value. For Murray, he has been killing it as of late and it’s because he’s finally seeing constraint minutes. In all of his last five games, he has seen mid to high 20’s in minutes and has scored over 20 DFS points in all of them. That is no coincidence and on this huge slate, if you’re looking to go cheap, Murray may be your guy.
Gary Harris-DK$4700: FD:$5100
Will Barton- DK:$5200 FD:$4900
The Mavs are again a top 10 team in guarding SG’s and will have their hands full with Barton and Harris all night long. For Harris, he is playing some good basketball but has some room to improve. In his last five games, he has had two 30+point games, two low 20 point games, and one sub 20 point game. While he isn’t playing awful he isn’t as consistent as DFS players would hope. The Mavs give up an average of 34.3 DFS points a night to SG’s on Fanduel and on DraftKings they allow 40.3 points per game which is also around top 10. The last time these two teams played Harris had a great night where he had 24 points, 2 rebounds, and 4 assists. His price is still low enough where he is low risk and could reward you well. Will Barton is in a bit of a slump as of late as in his last six games, only once has he scored more than 20 DFS points. He just doesn’t seem to contribute as well as he normally does when Harris is healthy. The story is the same on Barton, he has to prove to owners he can get back to old Will Barton type play, until then you may want to wait.
Wilson Chandler– DK:$6000 FD:$6200
Danilo Gallinari remains out with a groin injury which means into the starting 5 Wilson Chandler goes. In his last four games, he has had 2 monster games which saw him get 50+ in one and come very close to 50 again. He also has had some duds but one was in a blowout to the Spurs so it shouldn’t keep you from playing him. He does, however, have to go up against one of the better one on one defenders in the NBA in Harrison Barnes, who has always prided himself on defense. Barnes and the Mavs have held opposing SF’s to an average of 33.6 points per game on Fanduel which is 4th best in the league. While on DraftKings they have allowed 39.3 points per game which is 6th best. Chandler will have to reach 30 tonight to give us value, but with the minutes he should play tonight, it may happen.
Kenneth Faried(QUESTIONABLE)– DK:$5000 FD:$6900
Faried is questionable tonight with a personal issue so we will have to keep an eye on that as tip gets closer. If he does play though he will have to go up against the third best defensive team vs PF’s on Fanduel and the third best as well on DraftKings. On Fanduel they allow 38.2 points a game and only 43.4 on DraftKings. Last time the Mavs played the Nuggets, Faried was in that stretch where he rarely played big minutes or even played at all. In that game, he saw only 10 minutes and failed to score and snatched three rebounds. That was however before he found his rhythm again and became the Manimal of old. His price is getting up there though and to expect him to put up close to 35 on Fanduel may be too much to ask. On DraftKings, 30 is more reasonable but will be no easy challenge vs this great defensive team.
Nikola Jokić– DK-$9000 FD:-$10900
Last time out vs the Spurs, Nikola Jokic finally looked human, for once. In that game, in 15 minutes he scored 11 points, grabbed one rebound and dished out two assists. Over 15 minutes that’s not, heck if you multiply that by two you have 22 points 2 rebound and 4 assist, not great but could be worse. But, at Jokic price tag we need much more, much much more. On Fanduel he is very close to that exclusive 11k price tag which will scare many off him. He will need to virtually score 55 DFS points just to hit value. On DraftKings it is a little more reasonable but still a huge amount of money to pay on this huge slate. The Mavs are a top 10 team defensively at C but that has not stopped Jokic before. The one thing that is going against Jokic is the pace of play that the Mavs operate at. The Mavs are one of the slowest paced teams in the league which in turn, minimizes the possessions each team gets. Jokic may find a hard time running the fastbreak and dropping dimes, the thing he is so good at. At his price tag and this matchup, while I love Jokic, he’s just too expensive for me to slot him in.