Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Jameer Nelson- DK:$6000 FD:$5300
Jamal Murray- DK:$3900 FD:$3900
For the fifth game in a row now the Nuggets will be without Emmanuel Mudiay. So, we will once again see a Jameer Nelson start, with Jamal Murray joining in on the fun off the bench. As DFS players we should be ecstatic that we will see Jameer Nelson once again get a bigger role in the offense as he has now turned in three straight amazing games. This three-game stretch was highlighted by a 23 point, three rebound, seven assist night against the Golden State Warriors. The match up for Jameer Nelson is not particularly great as the Timberwolves are middle of the pack defense team. On FanDuel they allow 43.7 points per game to opposing point guards. While on DraftKings they allow 54.3 points which is also middle of the pack. One key thing for Jameer Nelson during this stretch of great games is the fact that he saying big minutes, as in his last three games he hasn’t had one game where he has been under 34 minutes. As long as he sees these high minutes, his usage rate will be off the chart and should provide us with another great night for DFS. As for Jamal Murray, he is coming off a good game against the Warriors which saw him score 14 points, grab a rebound, and dish out 4 assist. His minutes remain in the mid-20s, which is something that while it doesn’t hurt us as DFS players, isn’t as great as we wanted to be. On this huge slate of 14 games, Jamal Murray may be a good punt play for you, but be cautious as his minutes are not going to be huge.
Gary Harris-DK$4900: FD:$5100
Will Barton- DK:$7300 FD:$6400
Will Barton has been an absolute tear for the Denver Nuggets during this last handful of games. During the last few games of the stretch, the Denver Nuggets have been badly beaten up due to injury which has forced Barton to step into a bigger role. He has taken full advantage of this, last game vs the Warriors in 41 minutes he poured in 24 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and had 7 assist. This is not the first time Will Barton has flirted with a triple-double and we should become very accustomed to seeing him stuff the stat sheet night in and night out. In Barton’s last five games he’s had three 40+ DFS nights, one 30+ point DFS night and the other one he was still above 20 DFS points. Will Barton looks like a great play tonight as he should see extended minutes once again. As for Gary Harris, he’s seen some big minutes as well however he hasn’t gone off just as much as Will Barton has. Last game he dropped 16 points, which is his third straight game dropping that amount, had 2 rebounds and dished out only one assist. While we would love to see him get a little bit more rebounds and assists, the scoring is where we expect it to be. Usually, the Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the best defense teams vs shooting guards because they are used to deploying Zach Lavine, a very high-energy guard who prides himself on not only high-flying dunks but also being very great on the defensive end. Unfortunately, Zach Lavine’s season was cut short due to an ACL injury which means that the Minnesota Timberwolves will send out Brandon Rush to attempt to stop Will Barton and Gary Harris, this means that both Harris and Barton should be in line for another great game.
Nikola Jokić– DK-$9000 FD:-$1100
Mason Plumlee- DK-$4000 FD-$6000
Mason Plumlee is said to make his Nuggets debut tonight against the Timberwolves and should be able to see extended minutes with how depleted the Nuggets frontcourt is. Before coming to Denver, Mason Plumlee had himself a nice little season going, especially on DFS. He averaged 29.2 FanDuel points per game while on DraftKings he averaged 30.8 points per game. Michael Malone has said that the Nuggets plan to play Jokic with Plumlee as a backup center, but may also play side by side with the Joker. When Jokic is on the court, Plumlee will most likely slide to the four where he will face defense from Gorgui Dieng, a middle of the pack defender DFS wise. However when Jokic is not on the court he will have to go up against Karl Anthony towns, similarly, Jokic may have to defend KAT when he plays. Karl Anthony towns is not only one of the best scoring centers in the NBA but he’s also one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. On FanDuel he gives up an average of 44.9 points per night which is 8th best in the league, and on DraftKings he gives up an average of 47.9 DraftKings points per game which is 9th best. Last time Denver played Minnesota they deployed Wilson Chandler on Karl Anthony towns with help in the form of a double team almost every time he touched the ball. With Denver’s depleted roster today it wouldn’t surprise me if Jokic had to deal with Karl Anthony towns just 1 on 1. What scares me about that is the potential for Jokic to run into early foul trouble and have to sit, and with his $11,000/$9000 price tag we simply cannot afford to have him in foul trouble. Jokic is going to have to play nearly a perfect game, as he is capable of, to give us the 55 points on FanDuel which he needs to hit value or the 45 points on DraftKings which he needs to hit value. While I believe the 45 points to hit value is much more attainable for Jokic it just does not seem like the right matchup to slot him in your lineups, regardless of Fanduel or DraftKings.